Comments on: The Cranky Product Manager Sez Go Big or Go Home

By: AnthonyBroadCrawford

AnthonyBroadCrawford — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:46:09 +0000

Continuing my #startup theme, I agree with @crankypm. If you don't swing for the fences, don't bother #lame #metaphor http://bit.ly/2N03xl

By: The 1% market size fallacy « Empirical Insights

The 1% market size fallacy « Empirical Insights — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:07:01 +0000

[...] 1% market size fallacy The Cranky PM has an insightful take on the usual ‘conservative’ take on marketing sizing. In the [...]

By: PeteW

PeteW — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:53:46 +0000

The idea of grabbing (or creating) 1% market share is a long tail tactic to market entry dependent on a niche opportunity. As long as the cost of entry is low, finding a niche on the long tail is a low risk approach: just do it. Hopefully it sustains itself, or better, with a little feeding of additional capital, it grows.

But what’s the point? Do you deliver a business case just to show you “can” do it? The real question is SHOULD you do it? What are the opportunity costs? What’s the value of that 1% share? Could the niche become disruptive enough to move up the tail and deliver more return?

It seems to me an objective of 1% is more a milestone than a goal. It needs a growth strategy.

By: jebjeb

jebjeb — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:56:02 +0000

Anyone that's done a napkin business case, this will be a good laugh http://bit.ly/107WeE

By: Darrin Johnson

Darrin Johnson — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:33:04 +0000

The Cranky Product Manager: The Cranky Product Manager Sez Go Big or Go Home http://tinyurl.com/yj6x6lv

By: Greg Saiz

Greg Saiz — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 22:19:07 +0000

The Cranky Product Manager is back with good advice. Go big or go home! http://bit.ly/2rbGkq

By: Rich Mironov

Rich Mironov — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:12:46 +0000

RT @AgileProductMgr: "Go Big or Go Home – 1% of the total market doesn't cut it" by @crankypm http://bit.ly/2Duhe0 #startup #prodmktg

By: gander

gander — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:14:39 +0000

@paco – Wow. What a great post. I just left the world of hardware where all the factors you describe are crucial to planning and success, and entered the world of enterprise SW. Of course, I joined a mature organization with an established track record, so the idealists are not in charge, but the mentality of PM’s from the SW world that I interviewed when i was seeking PM’s for my hardware world match your comments exactly.

Also, my wife writes screenplays (only one sold to date, but the dreck that keeps getting produced keeps her hopes alive), and you pegged the LA scene too.

Even being in a startup, it would be hard for me as a marketer, let alone as a PM to think that I would ever pitch 1% as a goal.

Great post CPM, as always.

Geoff

By: The Cranky Product Manager

The Cranky Product Manager — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 12:56:52 +0000

Hey Linda, Sure…. the Cranky Product Manager sees your point about not confusing the Total one-day Potential Market with the Total Market using the product today. It doesn’t really matter to the the thesis of this post, though, which is “don’t make 1% market share arguments because 1% is unsustainable and a failure position”. Doesn’t matter whether you are talking 1% of the Total Potential Market or the Total Market TODAY.

By: Paco

Paco — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 22:09:26 +0000

Funny thing – after I moved out of the Bay Area, I stopped meeting so many dipwads who spew exactly these sort of “business plans” for totally inane product ideas.

Actually, my first stop after the Bay Area was LA, and there you just replace “business plan” with “screenplay” and the concentration of dipwads with dumb ideas is comparable to the Bay Area.

Part of the problem I think we have in the software industry (and I mean the royal we) is that we produce products and/or services that require very little in the way of big capital expenditures for labor, manufacturing facilities, etc. When entering an industry requires you to sink tens of millions of $$ into fixed costs right off the bat to get a company started, the 1% argument won’t get you a loan from a bank. Hell, banks even screen out people with genuinely good business plans :)
But the software industry is perversely self-deluding:


Do you need a factory?  Nope.
Do you need boxcars full of raw materials?  No.
Do you need to hire hundreds of laborers?  Nuh-uh.
Do you need CAD designs and pre-production prototypes to pass through numerous regulatory agencies?  Hellz no.

Do you need tens of millions of dollars in initial investments before you can ship and sell the very first unit of your product? Of course not.
In fact, here’s the checklist for most self-styled interweb entrepreneus who believe they’re going to launch the greatest, most killerest (I just made that word up) app ever made:
Got an Amex card? Yep.


Got two friends who talk like they're super hardcore software hackers?  Check.

Got enough room in your Mom's basement to setup a couple more desktop computers and another X-Box for Halo 3 breaks? Yes.

It’s GO-TIME melon farmers!